We propose to re-examine the arguments that support the view that was widespread in the past or that favor the new vision. For the spurious regression problem of non-stationary time series, stationary and co-integration tests of urbanization rate and GDP per capita were conducted first, and then estimations of pooled model, fixed-effects model and random-effects model were made. 1a). There was a similar phenomenon in the 5060% urbanization level group. How does urbanization affect the human development How digital twins - and metavercities - could reshape urban development from Auckland to Hong Kong Jun 23, 2023. Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. Here, we define rapid-urbanization, slow-urbanization, and moderate-urbanization as having an annual growth rate of urbanization larger than 1.2%, smaller Urbanization is fundamentally a process including both urban population growth and urban land change1. Lastly, this study illustrates that good governance is a necessary condition for economic growth to affect ULE. We refer the two time periods as pre-2000 and post-2000. The authors declare no competing interests. Cities in Middle East show the maximum variability in population growth rates followed by Africa. When a country enters the highest income category, population growth again becomes an important predictor. Percent growth in urban land area have been calculated from Mahtta et al.37. BRICS countries have a great influence on world development, where growing urbanization has induced air pollution, water quality, land degradation, and environmental degradation. How does urbanization affect carbon emission efficiency To examine the varying influence of economic and population growth on ULE, we used averages across income groups and geographic regions. GUID:AEAC6442-5F92-48B0-956F-2B81C2C65A7C, GUID:CBDACB99-EA96-408F-A670-5745F031799F, GUID:8F0FA87E-FFA0-4D04-B916-826A529B7F3D, Development patterns: among countries and over time, The urbanization process and economic growth: The so-what question, Urbanization in developing countries: an overview of the economic and policy issues in the 1990s, Four theses in the study of Chinas urbanization, International journal of urban and regional research, Evolution and assessment on Chinas urbanization 19602010: Under-urbanization or over-urbanization, Chinas living laboratory in urbanization, The paradox of Chinas growing under-urbanization, Urbanization and development in sub-Saharan Africa, Complexity theory as a link between space and place. Environ. We developed descriptive statistical models (Model I to Model V) of urban growth for both the periods (19702000 and 20002014). Cities have a strong sense of order and pattern, and are no longer regarded as being disordered systems beneath the apparent chaos and diversity of urban spatial form [13], [14]. Economic The average annual ULE rate in a million-plus city is 1.08%, whereas the average annual growth in population is 1.58% and in GDP per capita is 4.21%. Conceptually, we decided the governance indicators that closely match with fundamental governance attributes of service delivery, policy making and implementation, public confidence in institutional setup, and quality of conflict mitigation and resolution mechanisms; statistically, our exploratory analysis of the set of available indicators revealed a significant correlation between the measures. Urbanization projections indicate a slowing rate in Africa from the 1990s high rates of up to 8% down to a range of 1.9%2.2% from 20202050, with significant variation across its countries [ 3 ]. Concentrated energy use leads to greater air pollution Int. In 2018, high-income countries had a level of urbanization of 81% on average, while low-income countries had an urbanization level on average of 32% (UN, DESA28). Shlomo, A., Chabaeva, A. Urbanization: expanding opportunities, but deeper divides McDonald, R. I. et al. In other words, growth of GDP per capita is modest between 0% and 40%, but dramatic between 40% and 70%. 41, 83102 (2019). Rev. 95, 101131 (2016). However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. & McGranahan, G. Urbanization and economic growth: the arguments and evidence for Africa and Asia. Appl. Urbanization and urban concentration have a positive impact on economic growth while urban primacy has a negative impact [15], [16]. Urbanization level is the ratio of urban to total population. Population and GDP per capita growth rates have been calculated from the Oxford Economics 2016 database48. Collectively, the literature points to urban population growth, economic development, governance, and institutions as important factors that shape urban expansion. :Prop\;GDPgr = \frac{{\frac{{\mathop {\sum }\nolimits_{{\mathrm{i}} \in {\mathrm{j}}} \widehat {\beta _2}gdprtc_{\mathrm{i}}}}{{n_{\mathrm{j}}}}}}{{\frac{{\mathop {\sum }\nolimits_{{\mathrm{i}} \in {\mathrm{j}}} \widehat {\beta _1}poprtc_{\mathrm{i}} + \widehat {\beta _2}gdprtc_{\mathrm{i}}}}{{n_{\mathrm{j}}}}}}$$, https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-022-00048-y. Because of the larger R2, model has greater explanatory power, similar to cross-sectional analysis. Urbanization - Overview | US EPA To answer these two questions, an interdisciplinary methodology for identifying the spatio-temporal pattern is applied to explore the effects of the urbanization process on economic growth, in the context of cross-country panel data derived from the World Bank data sets. First, we investigate the correlation across countries and regions using cross-sectional level data from 1980 and 2011. official website and that any information you provide is encrypted Webeconomic development is not straightforward but mediated by global and local processes, both spatial and historical. Average annual ULE rates in high-income (HI) countries are significantly different from all other income groups when controlled for population and GDP per capita in pre-2000 (Table 1, Model II). Urban land change affects biogeochemical cycles, regional to global climate, hydrological systems, and biodiversity2. However, there may be other and more immediate reasons that play a more important role in this evolution, such as reform and opening-up policies [30], institutional transition [31] or educational development [32]. and create the following two indicators for of the proportion of urban expansion attributed to either population or GDP growth rate for the jth region. This disparity is similar for other Millennium Development Goals. Zhang, Q., Wallace, J., Deng, X. It is thus not surprising that population and employment growth are major drivers of the demand for urban land. (2) Is there significant evidence that urbanization speed influences the rate of economic growth on a global scale? Cheshire, P. & Magrini, S. Urban growth drivers in a Europe of sticky people and implicit boundaries. In the medium to short term, urbanization speed has little effect on economic growth rate. The contribution of GDP per capita to urban growth declined from 38 to 26%, while that of population growth increased from 63 to 74%. In contrast, cities with higher ULE rates than population growth rates are concentrated in China and East and Southeast Asia (hence E & SE Asia) and Europe. Drivers of urban growth in the Kathmandu valley. Environ. R Core Team. Additionally, the level of GDP per capita in the higher urbanization groups (60100%) has shown significant growth trends over the last 30 years, while the lower urbanization groups (050%) demonstrate a more complicated change in level of GDP per capita. The relative patterns, however, do not change the fact that developed nations have a higher level of urbanization than developing regions. These three dimensions have close relations with each other. Or does economic activity drive urban land use change? & Gitlin, L. The dynamics of global urban expansion (English). We expand on the interpretation of the R2 statistic in the Supplementary Note 2. PLoS ONE 9, e103799 (2014). Between urbanization and economic growth at least a causal relationship exists. Regions where we found more variability (i.e., low to high) in GDP per capita growth rates at city scale are E & SE Asia, Africa, and CS America. As expected, cities in Europe and North America exhibit the lowest urban land and population growth rates. Accessibility 4). Urban scaling refers to the idea that major urban properties, such as urban greenhouse gas emissions and urban area extent, show scaling relationships with urban population33,34,35. A few cities in the Middle East regionDoha (Qatar), Sharjah (UAE), Dubai (UAE)have exceptionally high population growth rates. 1b). WebIncreasing evidence highlights the strong and complex interactions and interlinkages among different environmental processes, e.g., between climate change and ecosystem change 42, 10611067 (2012). African Development Bank, OECD, & United Nations Development Programme. This paper examined the nexus between economic growth, energy consumption, urbanization, population growth, and carbon emissions in the BRICS economies from 1990 to 2019. The results show that effective governance is necessary for GDP growth to affect ULE. Thapa, R. B. The global urbanization level increases remarkably during 19802011, and the population peaks are also clear in 2011. As a result, the impact of urbanization on crop and livestock production systems and their implications for food security are increasingly recognized at international and national levels as key components of sustainable development (Sonnino 2016; Szabo 2016; UN-FAO 2017; UN Habitat 2005 ). Only three studies1,17,18 have examined drivers of urban expansion for cities globally. Global change and the ecology of cities. Third, economic development level, energy consumption structure, foreign trade, and government intervention are positively correlated with carbon emission efficiency. J. Econ. This paper Using this method GDP per capita data can be compared more accuratelly in ways that eliminate the distorting effect of changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The color difference is clearer in the developing world, especially in Southeast Asia and Africa, which represent the bulk of the urbanization process and where urban population growth has occurred (Figure 1). Why It Seems Everything We Knew About the Global Economy Is No Longer True.